Sunday, January 13, 2013

SPC Tornado Watch 4

WW0004 SAW
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW4     WW 4 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 130530Z - 131200Z    AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..    45SSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 40NW UOX/OXFORD MS/    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /46W AEX - 16S MEM/    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.    MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.        REPLACES WW 3..AR MO         LAT...LON 31129456 34779126 34778879 31129220        THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS    FOR WOU4.     

Watch 4 Status Report Messages:

 STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 4  VALID 131030Z - 131140Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GWO TO 45 NNW GWO TO 20 SSE MEM.  THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 4 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 24.  ..KERR..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   MSC009-071-093-107-119-135-137-161-131140-  MS  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BENTON		     LAFAYETTE		 MARSHALL	      PANOLA		     QUITMAN		 TALLAHATCHIE	      TATE		     YALOBUSHA		  $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 4  VALID 130930Z - 131040Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POE TO 15 WSW IER TO 35 NNE MLU TO 30 N GLH TO 20 S MEM.  ..KERR..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC003-017-077-107-139-131040-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ASHLEY		     CHICOT		 LEE		      PHILLIPS	     UNION		  $$   LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083- 107-111-123-127-131040-  LA  .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE  BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	      CLAIBORNE	     EAST CARROLL	 FRANKLIN	      GRANT		     JACKSON		 LA SALLE	      LINCOLN 	     MADISON		 MOREHOUSE	      NATCHITOCHES	     OUACHITA		 RICHLAND	      TENSAS		     UNION		 WEST CARROLL	      WINN		      $$   MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-131040-  MS  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BENTON		     BOLIVAR		 COAHOMA	      DESOTO		     HUMPHREYS		 ISSAQUENA	      LAFAYETTE	     LEFLORE		 MARSHALL	      PANOLA		     QUITMAN		 SHARKEY	      SUNFLOWER	     TALLAHATCHIE	 TATE		      TUNICA		     WASHINGTON 	 YALOBUSHA	      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 4  VALID 130840Z - 130940Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW POE TO 20 SW LLQ TO 50 WSW MEM.  ..KERR..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-003-017-041-043-077-079-107-139-130940-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     ASHLEY		 CHICOT 	      DESHA		     DREW		 LEE		      LINCOLN 	     PHILLIPS		 UNION		      $$   LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083- 107-111-123-127-130940-  LA  .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE  BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	      CLAIBORNE	     EAST CARROLL	 FRANKLIN	      GRANT		     JACKSON		 LA SALLE	      LINCOLN 	     MADISON		 MOREHOUSE	      NATCHITOCHES	     OUACHITA		 RICHLAND	      TENSAS		     UNION		 WEST CARROLL	      WINN		      $$   MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130940-  MS  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BENTON		     BOLIVAR		 COAHOMA	      DESOTO		     HUMPHREYS		 ISSAQUENA	      LAFAYETTE	     LEFLORE		 MARSHALL	      PANOLA		     QUITMAN		 SHARKEY	      SUNFLOWER	     TALLAHATCHIE	 TATE		      TUNICA		     WASHINGTON 	 YALOBUSHA	      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 4  VALID 130730Z - 130840Z  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.  ..KERR..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139- 130840-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     ASHLEY		 BRADLEY	      CALHOUN 	     CHICOT		 CLEVELAND	      COLUMBIA	     DESHA		 DREW		      JEFFERSON	     LEE		 LINCOLN	      MONROE		     PHILLIPS		 UNION		      $$   LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073- 081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130840-  LA  .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE  BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	      CLAIBORNE	     DE SOTO		 EAST CARROLL	      FRANKLIN	     GRANT		 JACKSON	      LA SALLE	     LINCOLN		 MADISON	      MOREHOUSE	     NATCHITOCHES	 OUACHITA	      RED RIVER	     RICHLAND		 SABINE 	      TENSAS		     UNION		 WEBSTER	      WEST CARROLL	     WINN		  $$   MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130840-  MS  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BENTON		     BOLIVAR		 COAHOMA	      DESOTO		     HUMPHREYS		 ISSAQUENA	      LAFAYETTE	     LEFLORE		 MARSHALL	      PANOLA		     QUITMAN		 SHARKEY	      SUNFLOWER	     TALLAHATCHIE	 TATE		      TUNICA		     WASHINGTON 	 YALOBUSHA	      $$   TXC005-347-403-405-419-130840-  TX  .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ANGELINA	     NACOGDOCHES	 SABINE 	      SAN AUGUSTINE	     SHELBY		  $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 4  VALID 130625Z - 130740Z  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.  ..KERR..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139- 130740-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     ASHLEY		 BRADLEY	      CALHOUN 	     CHICOT		 CLEVELAND	      COLUMBIA	     DESHA		 DREW		      JEFFERSON	     LEE		 LINCOLN	      MONROE		     PHILLIPS		 UNION		      $$   LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073- 081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130740-  LA  .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE  BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	      CLAIBORNE	     DE SOTO		 EAST CARROLL	      FRANKLIN	     GRANT		 JACKSON	      LA SALLE	     LINCOLN		 MADISON	      MOREHOUSE	     NATCHITOCHES	 OUACHITA	      RED RIVER	     RICHLAND		 SABINE 	      TENSAS		     UNION		 WEBSTER	      WEST CARROLL	     WINN		  $$   MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130740-  MS  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BENTON		     BOLIVAR		 COAHOMA	      DESOTO		     HUMPHREYS		 ISSAQUENA	      LAFAYETTE	     LEFLORE		 MARSHALL	      PANOLA		     QUITMAN		 SHARKEY	      SUNFLOWER	     TALLAHATCHIE	 TATE		      TUNICA		     WASHINGTON 	 YALOBUSHA	      $$   TXC005-347-403-405-419-130740-  TX  .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ANGELINA	     NACOGDOCHES	 SABINE 	      SAN AUGUSTINE	     SHELBY		  $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  
WW0004 Probability
Note: ?Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0004.html

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