Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4 WW 4 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 130530Z - 131200Z AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 45SSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 40NW UOX/OXFORD MS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /46W AEX - 16S MEM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040. REPLACES WW 3..AR MO LAT...LON 31129456 34779126 34778879 31129220 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU4.
Watch 4 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 4 VALID 131030Z - 131140Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GWO TO 45 NNW GWO TO 20 SSE MEM. THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 4 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 24. ..KERR..01/13/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC009-071-093-107-119-135-137-161-131140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE YALOBUSHA $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 4 VALID 130930Z - 131040Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POE TO 15 WSW IER TO 35 NNE MLU TO 30 N GLH TO 20 S MEM. ..KERR..01/13/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-077-107-139-131040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LEE PHILLIPS UNION $$ LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083- 107-111-123-127-131040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL WINN $$ MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-131040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 4 VALID 130840Z - 130940Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW POE TO 20 SW LLQ TO 50 WSW MEM. ..KERR..01/13/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-077-079-107-139-130940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LEE LINCOLN PHILLIPS UNION $$ LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083- 107-111-123-127-130940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL WINN $$ MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 4 VALID 130730Z - 130840Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..01/13/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139- 130840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE PHILLIPS UNION $$ LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073- 081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN $$ MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA $$ TXC005-347-403-405-419-130840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 4 VALID 130625Z - 130740Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..01/13/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139- 130740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE PHILLIPS UNION $$ LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073- 081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN $$ MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137- 143-151-161-130740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA $$ TXC005-347-403-405-419-130740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
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Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events | Low ( |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches | Low ( |
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events | High (70%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0004.html
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